European natural gas futures rose 6% to €42.4 per megawatt-hour, the highest since March 2025, as supply concerns intensified amid falling US LNG flows and rising winter demand. Gas flows to US liquefied natural gas export plants fell to the lowest in a year after winter storms disrupted production, limiting export availability just as Europe prepares for another deep freeze. The region relies heavily on LNG after losing most Russian pipeline supplies following the invasion of Ukraine, with LNG now covering roughly half of Europe’s gas needs. The EU sourced 27% of its total gas and LNG imports from the US in 2025, up from 6% in 2021, increasing exposure to US supply disruptions. At the same time, unusually cold weather is forecast to persist into early February, lifting heating demand. Gas storage is being drawn down rapidly, with EU inventories at 45.6% compared with 56.5% a year ago, including low levels in Germany (37.5%), France (36.4%), and the Netherlands (31.1%).
