Lumber futures rose toward $535 per thousand board feet, rebounding from the September low of $528 reached on January 7th after a low liquidity holiday sell off unwound, improving seasonal demand expectations and longer term supply tightening. Renewed engagement from market participants, signaled that forced selling and the thin trading conditions that pushed prices to multi month lows have faded. Seasonal demand expectations have strengthened as builders begin positioning ahead of the spring construction period, when consumption typically improves following year end destocking. Industry forecasts point to a modest pickup in US housing starts and repair and remodel activity in 2026 as interest rates ease and trade uncertainty recedes, supporting demand after a weak finish to 2025. At the same time, longer term supply growth remains constrained by ongoing tariffs on Canadian softwood and slower capacity expansion across North American sawmills, limiting surplus.
