When is the US ISM Manufacturing PMI data and how could it affect EUR/USD?

The United States (US) Institute of Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data for February is due for release today at 15:00 GMT.

The ISM report is expected to show that the manufacturing sector activity expanded again, but at a moderate pace. The Manufacturing PMI is expected at 51.8, down from 52.6 in January. Last month, manufacturing sector activity expanded for the first time after remaining below 50.0, a figure that separates expansion from contraction, for a straight 10 months.

Apart from the Manufacturing PMI, investors will also focus on sub-components of the data, such as Employment Index, Prices Paid, and New Orders Index. ISM Manufacturing Prices Paid – which reflects changes in expenditure for inputs such as labor and raw materials – is estimated higher at 59.5 from the previous reading of 59.0.

Weaker-than-projected US ISM Manufacturing PMI data would prompt expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (Fed), as policymakers remain concerned over the economic outlook. On the contrary, higher figures would diminish them.

How could US PMI data affect EUR/USD?

EUR/USD trades 0.75% lower at around 1.1730 at the press time. The near-term bias turns mildly bearish as spot slips below the 20-day Exponential Moving Average near 1.1800.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) has retreated further towards 40.00 after failing to return above 60.00, indicating selling pressure at higher levels. Fresh bearish momentum would appear if the RSI breaks below 40.00.

Immediate support emerges at the trend-line break area around 1.1645, with a clear violation exposing the mid-1.1500 region and then the 1.1489 origin of the uptrend. On the upside, initial resistance stands at the 20-day EMA around 1.1800, followed by the recent swing highs at 1.1880 and then the 1.2030 peak, which caps the broader bullish structure and would need to give way to negate the current corrective tone.