USD/JPY Price Forecast: Flirts with 200-SMA, 23.6% Fibo. confluence support near 155.75

• USD/JPY retreats further from a two-week high and is pressured by a combination of factors.
• Hawkish comments from BoJ officials and sustained safe-haven flows lend support to the JPY.
• The mixed technical setup warrants some caution before placing aggressive directional bets.

The USD/JPY pair extends the previous day’s modest pullback from the 156.80-156.85 region, or a two-week high, and attracts some follow-through selling during the Asian session on Thursday. Spot prices slide to the 155.75 area during the Asian session and, for now, seem to have snapped a two-day winning streak amid a combination of factors.

The Japanese Yen (JPY) strengthens in reaction to hawkish comments from the Bank of Japan (BoJ) officials, backing the case for further policy tightening. Apart from this, trade-related uncertainties and geopolitical risks ahead of the US-Iran nuclear talks benefit the JPY’s safe-haven status. This, along with a modest US Dollar (USD) weakness, turns out to be another factor exerting downward pressure on the USD/JPY pair.

From a technical perspective, the intraday decline stalls near the 155.75 confluence support – comprising the 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart and the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the 152.34–156.85 advance. The said area should act as a pivotal point for intraday traders, which, if broken decisively, could prompt some technical selling around the USD/JPY pair and pave the way for deeper losses.

Spot prices might then accelerate the fall towards the next relevant support, which is defined by the 38.2% Fibo. retracement level at 155.15, followed by the 50.0% retracement at 154.60 if sellers regain control. Some follow-through selling would further weaken the bullish tone and expose the 61.8% Fibo. retracement level support at 154.06.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has eased to around 55, pointing to positive but not overstretched momentum after failing to sustain readings near 70. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) line hovers just above the signal line and close to the zero mark, which suggests modest upside pressure but limited directional conviction for now. This warrants some caution before placing aggressive bets around the USD/JPY pair.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)

USD/JPY 4-hour chart