US CPI data set to show inflation remained well above Fed target in November
- The US Consumer Price Index is forecast to rise 3.1% YoY in November, slightly higher compared with September.
- The inflation report will not include monthly CPI figures.
- November inflation data could drive the US Dollar’s valuation by altering January Fed rate cut expectations.
The United States (US) Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will publish the all-important Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for November on Thursday at 13:30 GMT.
The inflation report will not include CPI figures for October and will not offer monthly CPI prints for November due to a lack of data collection during the government shutdown. Hence, investors will scrutinize the annual CPI and core CPI prints to assess how inflation dynamics could influence the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) policy outlook.
What to expect in the next CPI data report?
As measured by the change in the CPI, inflation in the US is expected to rise at an annual rate of 3.1% in November, mildly above September’s reading. The core CPI inflation, which excludes the volatile food and energy categories, is also forecast to rise 3% in this period.
TD Securities analysts expect annual inflation to rise at a stronger pace than anticipated but see the core inflation holding steady. “We look for the US CPI to rise 3.2% y/y in November – its fastest pace since 2024. The increase will be driven by rising energy prices, as we look for the core CPI to remain steady at 3.0%,” they explain.
