US annual PCE inflation edges lower to 2.8% in January, GDP Growth Slows

13.03.2026 – US PCE Inflation (January): 

• Core PCE MoM: 0,4% (Expected: 0,4%; Previous: 0,4%) 
• Core PCE YoY: 3,1% (Expected: 3,1%; Previous: 3,0%) 
• PCE MoM: 0,3% (Expected: 0,3%; Previous:0,4)
• PCE YoY: 2,8% (Expected: 2,9%; Previous: 2,9%) 

GDP Data (Q4): 

• GDP QoQ: 0,7% (Expected: 1,4%; Previous: 4,4%) 
• GDP Prices: 3,8% (Expected: 3,7%; Previous: 3,7%) 

Durables Orders (January): 

• MoM: 0,0% (Expected: 1,1%; Previous: -0,9%)
• Excluded Defence: 0,5% 

Superficial, PCE reading in lane with expectations should ease the market tensions but in current conditions there is no reason to celebrate.

Core PCE keeps raising, now exceeding 3,1% and measuring 0,4% on monthly basis, all that for a month before Hormuz/Iran conflict.

“Regular” PCE does show some minor signs or slowing down but its the GDP and Orders that tell the whole picture. 

GDP growth turned out to be half of what was expected, grinding down to 0,7%. Economic slowdown trend is supported by orders data, which turned out also below expectations. 

Dollar slightly declines, driven down by slowdown of US economy. 

EURUSD (M1)

Source: xStation5

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