Rabobank’s Michael Every highlights a key UK by‑election as a potential catalyst for Pound and Gilts volatility. Polls show Reform UK, Greens and Labour clustered around 27–28% support, implying any winner will represent a minority of voters. A victory for Reform UK or the Greens could be interpreted as an early signal for the May and 2029 UK elections.
Fragmented politics and market reaction risk
“There’s also a key UK by-election, which is taken as indicative of the country’s new fractured political landscape.”
“The latest polls suggest Reform UK, the Greens, and Labour are all on around 27-28% of the vote, meaning that any winner would represent a minority of the electorate, and potentially from a party with policies far outside the UK’s recent Overton Window.”
“A Reform or Green win in particular could see a market reaction if taken as a harbinger of where the UK is headed first in May and then in the 2029 general election.”
