European natural gas futures swung between gains and losses at around €50/MWh on Thursday, after an 8% drop in the previous session, after Russian President Putin’s threat to shut off gas supplies to Europe. Still, Russian gas flows to Europe have already fallen significantly in recent years and are expected to decline further due to the EU ban on its gas imports. Russia accounted for an estimated 13% of the EU’s imports in 2025. A potential halt heightens risks to Europe’s balance, amid supply disruptions caused by Middle East tensions, with the world’s largest LNG plant in Qatar remaining offline and the Strait of Hormuz closed. On Wednesday, prices dropped 8.3% on reports that Iran had reached out to the US to negotiate an end to the conflict, though Tehran later denied the claim. Meanwhile, President Trump said the US would ensure and escort vessels passing through the Strait, but key details remain unclear. These come as EU gas storage is tight, currently below 30% of capacity.
