European natural gas prices climbed above €29/MWh, the highest in nearly seven weeks, supported by colder weather risks, lower storage levels and rising geopolitical concerns around LNG supply. While forecasts show temperatures staying milder than normal over the next 10 days, models point to renewed cold toward the end of January. Recent cold spells have already led to faster storage withdrawals, leaving EU gas inventories about 54.9% full, well below roughly 66.9% at the same time last year. At the same time, geopolitical tensions have increased after reports that the US is considering military and cyber actions against Iran, raising concerns about potential disruptions to global LNG flows. These risks matter more for Europe, which has become far more dependent on LNG after losing most Russian pipeline gas. Last year, LNG imports overtook pipeline deliveries for the first time, highlighting Europe’s growing exposure to global supply shocks.
