We are heading into a busy week on the financial markets. This time, the FX and commodities space may prove particularly interesting. A series of key macroeconomic releases from the US, China and Europe may set the tone for trading — including PMI figures, CPI inflation in major economies, and US labour-market reports. Against this backdrop, special attention in the coming days should be directed toward WHEAT, PLATINUM and EURUSD, where geopolitical and fundamental factors remain the main drivers.
EURUSD
In the week ahead, we will receive a series of US labour-market reports. Given the recent shift in the Federal Reserve’s narrative — confirmed in the latest FOMC minutes — the labour market is now at the centre of the Bank’s focus. The Committee has officially acknowledged that the balance of risks has tilted toward employment, pointing to rising unemployment, slowing payroll growth and weaker corporate hiring plans. In the FOMC’s assessment, the deterioration in labour-market conditions currently poses a greater risk than the still-moderately-elevated PCE inflation (2.8% y/y). For this reason, the EURUSD pair may be particularly sensitive to any surprises in the upcoming releases — both Wednesday’s ADP report and Friday’s NFP data.
Wheat
The CBOT wheat market has retraced following signs of progress in talks between Trump and Zelensky. As a result, the geopolitical premium has eased slightly, with the market attempting to price in potentially cheaper export flows from Ukraine. However, the further trajectory of the conflict remains highly uncertain. From a technical standpoint, WHEAT is trading near local lows, with the RSI at 32.1 signalling proximity to oversold territory, while CoT positioning shows an extended net-short stance among speculative funds and a gradual shift of producers toward long positions. In this context, the current declines may reflect an overly optimistic interpretation of political negotiations. As such, the wheat market — along with other agricultural commodities — may be heading for an interesting start to 2026.
Platinum
Precious metals experienced an exceptionally volatile end to 2025, with platinum at the forefront of that movement. Just last week, the metal faced a sharp pullback following the announcement of margin increases on COMEX. At present, we do not observe extreme speculative positioning; however, further increases in margin requirements may gradually push some commercial participants out of the market as well. Market forecasts suggest that the platinum market may move into a more balanced state in 2026. Still, after the recent strong rally, the market likely needs some time to establish a new equilibrium level.
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