March NY world sugar #11 (SBH26) on Monday closed up +0.09 (+0.59%). March London ICE white sugar #5 (SWH26) closed down -0.60 (-0.14%).
Sugar prices settled mixed on Monday, with NY sugar matching last Wednesday’s 2.25-month high. Sugar prices have carryover support from last Tuesday when consulting firm Safras & Mercado said that Brazil’s sugar production in 2026/27 will fall by -3.91% to 41.8 MMT from 43.5 MMT expected in 2025/26. The firm expects Brazil’s exports in 2026/27 to fall -11% y/y to 30 MMT.
Sugar prices were under pressure earlier this month amid prospects of higher sugar exports from India, after India’s food secretary said the government may permit additional sugar exports to reduce a domestic supply glut. Last month, India’s food ministry said it would allow mills to export 1.5 MMT of sugar in the 2025/26 season. India introduced a quota system for sugar exports in 2022/23 after late rain reduced production and limited domestic supplies.
Signs of a larger sugar crop in India, the world’s second-largest producer, are undercutting prices after the India Sugar Mill Association (ISMA) on November 11 raised its 2025/26 India sugar production estimate to 31 MMT from an earlier forecast of 30 MMT, up +18.8% y/y. The ISMA also cut its estimate for sugar used for ethanol production in India to 3.4 MMT from a July forecast of 5 MMT, which may allow India to boost its sugar exports. Meanwhile, the India Sugar Mill Association (ISMA) reported on December 15 that Indian 2025-26 sugar production from October 1 to December 15 jumped +28% y/y to 7.83 MMT.
The outlook for record sugar output in Brazil is bearish for prices. Conab, Brazil’s crop forecasting agency, on November 4 raised its Brazil 2025/26 sugar production estimate to 45 MMT from a previous forecast of 44.5 MMT. Unica reported on December 16 that Brazil’s cumulative 2025-26 Center-South sugar output through November rose by +1.1% y/y to 39.904 MMT. Also, the ratio of cane crushed for sugar rose to 51.12% in 2025/36 from 48.34% in 2024/25.
