1:15 PM GMT – United States, ADP Employment Change:
- Actual 63K (Forecast 50k, Previous 11k revised down from 22k)
The dollar index (USDIDX) saw only marginal gains despite stronger-than-expected ADP labor market data. While the beat typically fuels hawkish Fed expectations, the market’s soft reaction was due to a downward revision of the previous month’s figures—a print that had already raised concerns about labor conditions.
This private report now sets a cautious stage for Friday’s Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP), where job growth is expected to slow significantly to 58K from the previous 130K. Another stronger-than-expected report would likely reinforce the market’s view that the Fed will become even more hesitant to resume rate cuts, especially given the sudden surge in inflationary risks driven by US-Iran war. On the other hand, weaker data will generate confusion over the health of the US labour market, putting additional pressure on Fed and likely reignating stagflation jitters.
Source: xStation5
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