Steel rebar futures in China inched higher to CNY 3,050 per tonne, the highest since the beginning of November amid evidence that the anti-involution policy pressed by Beijing is translating to lower supply. Crude steel output in China fell 12% annually in October, translating to a 4% drop year-to-date, to mark the lowest output for the month since 2021. The result was consistent with earlier pledges by China that industries suffering from overcapacity will undergo caps to combat the race to the bottom for smelters and the resulting deflationary spiral. In turn, steel exports fell by 12.5% from the previous year to 978.2 million tonnes in October, the first decline of this year, to underscore the impact of protectionist policies from consumers in Southeast Asia and Latin America that forced domestic mills to trim their dependency on foreign clients. Demand for rebar remained under pressure in China, evidenced by the official construction PMI falling to a record low in October.
