Steel rebar futures held steady above CNY 3,070 per ton, hovering near one-month highs after China reaffirmed its commitment to curb overcapacity in the steel sector, aiming to strengthen the industry’s overall health. Chinese steel mills remain under pressure from persistent oversupply amid a prolonged property downturn, while steel exports are increasingly constrained by protectionist measures in overseas markets. Beijing issued similar pledges during the 2025 policy meetings, though the results were mixed. The country’s steel output fell below 1 billion tons last year for the first time since 2019, although some analysts questioned the reliability of the official figures. China also set a 2026 GDP growth target of 4.5%–5%, the lowest since the early 1990s, as policymakers contend with ongoing deflationary pressures and higher US tariffs.
