US small- and mid-cap index futures Russell 2000 (US2000) are edging slightly lower today, but the contract is still roughly 50 points below its all-time high. Data from small businesses (much smaller than the companies included in the Russell 2000) came in a bit weaker than expected and remain below the survey’s 52-year average (98). This index is an important barometer of the US domestic economy, as it tracks the condition of small, often family-owned businesses that account for around 40% of total employment in the United States.
- Index components: Out of 10 components, 3 increased and 7 declined, pointing to a mixed sentiment picture.
- Biggest move: Expected real sales volume was the only component with a notable change, rising by 6 points.
- Uncertainty Index: Increased by 7 points m/m to 91, signalling growing hesitation among small firms.
- Main driver of higher uncertainty: More owners reported they are unsure whether now is a good time to expand their business.
- NFIB comment: Despite rising GDP, small businesses are “still waiting for noticeable economic growth,” though more owners report improved business conditions and expect higher sales.
- Employment index takeaway: The labour market picture appears balanced, with the index about 1.5 points above its historical average (101.6 vs 100).
Source: xStation5
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