There is a hint of nervousness across financial markets early on Wednesday, after Donald Trump’s many edicts finally caught up with risk sentiment. US stocks closed mildly lower, pulling away from the S&P 500’s record high on Tuesday, and JP Morgan fell more than 4% after reporting weaker investment banking revenues for Q4 and stating concern about Trump’s planned 10% cap on credit card interest rates.
The biggest issuers of credit cards in the US, which includes American Express and Capital One, alongside the biggest provider JPM, have all come under downward pressure in recent days as a political risk premium is building in sectors of the US market that are coming under Donald Treump’s glare.
Metals rally supports FTSE 100
US futures are in the red early this morning, however, UK and European futures are bucking this trend. A strong rally in metals is helping to keep demand for the mining-heavy FTSE 100 alive. The metals rally is lifting all ships: both base and precious metals are rising this morning. The price of tin, silver and gold, all reached records. Silver is now above $90, while gold is trading above $4,630. Anyone who thought the ‘parabolic’ increase in metals would slow in 2026 will need to reassess their view.
Why are base and precious metals surging together?
But why are base and precious metals rising together? A more interventionist Donald Trump who is pressuring the Fed, demanding corporations do as he wishes and plans to take Greenland are all driving flows into the relative safety of gold, however, zinc, copper, tin and aluminum have now joined the party. This is a sign that the market considers global growth to be solid, even with the geopolitical waves caused by the Trump administration. US inflation remains stable, and retail sales are expected to come in on the strong side later today.
Defense and Mining top sectors in FTSE 100 this year
From a stock market perspective, the rally in metals is good news for the FTSE 100’s top performing miners. So far this year, the themes that are dominating in January are playing to the main UK index’s strengths. UK-listed miners including Antofogasta, Fresnillo and Endeavour are top 10 performers YTD, behind defense stocks who take the top spot.
BP takes a hit before earnings
Other UK stocks could also be in focus this morning. BP said that it will take a $4-$5bn impairment charge for Q4, this announcement comes ahead of its earnings report that is scheduled to be released on 11th February. This is linked to its gas and green energy business, and does not bode well for 2025 results, when the oil price slipped 20%. Its earnings guidance includes flat upstream production for Q4 vs. Q3, and average gas trading results. The stock price is higher by more than 4% in the past week, so this news could take the shine off BP on Wednesday. The oil price is also slightly weaker this morning, which may add to the downside pressure.
UK labour market weakness, will it hit the fiscal headroom?
There are more signs that the UK labour market is slipping. Recruiter Hays said that net fees fell 10% last quarter. Hiring of permanent staff was a particular weak spot, while there was also weakness in Germany too. It looks like a global labour market softening is taking place, but this is particularly bad news for the UK, where the focus is on our budget dynamics. Labour’s spending binge means that any fall in tax take could threaten Chancellor Rachel Reeves’ fiscal headroom. While we don’t expect Hays’ results to move the UK bond market, this is a theme that is worth watching, and if we get more evidence that the UK’s labour market is weakening then we could see the bond market start to react.
Asian stocks take the lead, with Japan in the top spot
From a global perspective, Asian stocks are outperforming European and US indices, especially in Japan. The Nikkei is higher by nearly 8%, as the yen falls to its lowest level since mid-2024. Even Chinese shares are outperforming their US counterparts so far this year even though the Chinese government has imposed a 100% margin for all stocks bought with finance.
Slow rotation away from the US continues
European stocks are also outperforming their US counterparts, which is a sign that the rotation out of the US assets is continuing as we move into 2026. This is more of a trickle, but the changing world order, caused in a large part by Donald Trump, could see the flow speed up and this is a theme to watch closely in the coming days.
The dollar is broadly weaker today, although its performance so far this year has been mixed. This suggests that the investing world has not lost confidence in the US yet. However, there is a lot for markets to digest right now, including earnings reports and economic data. Later today, we will get Bank of America, Wells Fargo and Citi. Bank of America and Citi are both large credit card issuers, so it will be interesting to see what they have to say about Trump’s plans to limit interest rates. There is also a chance that the Supreme Court could release their verdict on whether some of Donald Trump’s tariffs are legal. This could keep investors on edge today.
The material on this page does not constitute financial advice and does not take into account your level of understanding, investment objectives, financial situation or any other specific needs. All information provided, including opinions, market research, mathematical results and technical analyzes published on the Website or transmitted To you by other means, it is provided for information purposes only and should in no way be construed as an offer or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument, nor should the information provided be construed as advice of a legal or financial nature on which any investment decisions you make should be based exclusively To your level of understanding, investment objectives, financial situation, or other specific needs, any decision to act on the information published on the Website or sent to you by other means is entirely at your own risk if you In doubt or unsure about your understanding of a particular product, instrument, service or transaction, you should seek professional or legal advice before trading. Investing in CFDs carries a high level of risk, as they are leveraged products and have small movements Often the market can result in much larger movements in the value of your investment, and this can work against you or in your favor. Please ensure you fully understand the risks involved, taking into account investments objectives and level of experience, before trading and, if necessary, seek independent advice.
