Commerzbank’s Tatha Ghose expects Poland’s NBP to deliver a 25 bps rate cut today, with slower-than-anticipated inflation justifying easing. While some MPC members urge caution, he sees the committee leaning toward a 3.25% terminal rate, a dovish trajectory that should keep the Zloty underperforming peers until after the next general election.
March cut seen as starting point
“Poland’s National Bank (NBP) will announce its monthly rate decision this afternoon: the analyst consensus unanimously expect a 25bps rate cut, a view we also subscribe to.”
“With inflation already slower-than-anticipated – and possibly projected to remain this way in the new NBP forecast – the data provide a clear justification for easing policy.”
“While Glapinski had previously hinted at a terminal rate of 3.50%, with some members citing the 3.25% level in the past, others see only one 25bps cut from here to be justified.”
“Such divergence in views about subsequent steps may introduce uncertainty, but we maintain our view that the committee leans dovish – and quite likely to eventually vote in favour of that 3.25% rate – which will likely keep the zloty on a path of underperformance relative to its peers, until Poland’s next general election (possibly November 2027) is out of the way.”
“As always, assuming that there is no surprise in today’s decision, the press conference tomorrow afternoon will hold the greater intrigue, in terms of future rate prospects, than today’s announcements.”
