Oil Surges 11% Amid Escalating Middle East Conflict.

Brent crude futures (OIL) are rising more than 11% today, extending the previous bullish impulse and already surpassing $93 per barrel. Along with oil, concerns about inflation, U.S. Treasury yields, and the U.S. dollar are also increasing. Demand for the VIX has surged amid expectations of higher volatility in the S&P 500, which despite geopolitical tensions and rising stagflation risks remains only about 5% below its all-time high near 7,000 points.

• The United States signaled it would retaliate after an attack targeting a base in Bahrain.
• Iraq reported a missile strike on the Taji military base (home to the U.S. Diplomatic Center) near Baghdad International Airport.
• Iran stated it had launched another wave of attacks on designated targets in the region and warned it could strike European countries if the EU joins the war.
• Donald Trump said today that there is no room for negotiations, suggesting that only a “complete” military victory for the United States is on the table, which likely implies a prolonged conflict with a possible involvement of ground forces.

Oil prices on global markets have now exceeded $90 per barrel for the first time since 2023.

OIL (D1 interval)

Source: xStation5

VIX futures are climbing to levels not seen since April 2025, when markets were shaken by fears related to Donald Trump’s tariffs and their potential impact on the global economy. Demand for hedging through VIX exposure is also increasing ahead of the weekend, as investors are reluctant to leave positions unhedged in case the conflict escalates over the weekend.

Source: xStation5

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