Deutsche Bank analysts highlight that Brent and WTI Oil have seen their biggest two-day jump since 2020 as fears of a prolonged Middle East conflict and supply disruptions intensify. They note that despite sharp gains, WTI remains below its 2024 average and still far from levels historically associated with recessions or full-scale market corrections.
Energy shock fears drive crude higher
“Of course, oil prices have been the main focus given the direct impact, and yesterday saw Brent crude up another +4.71% to $81.40/bbl.”
“So that now makes it the biggest 2-day jump for oil prices (+12.31%) since the pandemic recovery in 2020, and this morning they’re up another +1.51% to $82.63/bbl.”
“However, prices did come off their intraday peak above $85/bbl in European hours, stabilising after Trump said that the US “will begin escorting tankers through the Strait of Hormuz, as soon as possible” if necessary and that it would provide political risk insurance for ships travelling through the Gulf to “ensure the FREE FLOW of ENERGY to the WORLD”.”
“That said, with little detail on the plan, the reversal in oil proved short-lived, with Brent falling back to $78.40/bbl before rising again, moving back above $82/bbl this morning.”
“Interestingly though, if you look at the long-term history of oil prices, WTI is still a little below its 2024 average, and there’s still a long way to go before it compares to some of history’s bigger crises.”
