As expected, Norges Bank has kept interest rates unchanged. The main rate is currently 4.0%. Norges Bank has slightly adjusted its economic forecasts, although they do not significantly alter the overall picture:
- CPI inflation for 2025 is at 3.1%, in line with the September forecast.
- CPI inflation at 2.7% in 2026, compared to 2.8% in September.
- CPI inflation at 2.4% in 2027 compared to 2.3% in September.
- GDP in 2025 at 1.6% compared to 2.0% in September.
- GDP in 2026 at 1.3% compared to 1.5% in September.
- GDP in 2027 at 1.3%, unchanged from September.
Norges Bank has clearly lowered its economic forecasts and indicates that if the data aligns with the forecasts, it anticipates 1 or 2 rate cuts next year, but there is no rush to implement them quickly. Norges Bank itself expects inflation to reach the 2% target only by 2028, so there is no hurry to significantly lower interest rates.
The market gives only a 65% chance of cuts in July next year. The lack of urgency in rate cuts is strengthening the Norwegian krone against the euro. The euro is also losing slightly ahead of the ECB’s decision regarding a possible change in the tone of the decision (although interest rates will certainly be maintained, as the market predicts).
EURNOK (D1)
Source: xStation5
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