- USD/INR rebounds toward the all-time high of 92.81.
- Indian Rupee gained support as Middle East tensions eased after Trump said the Iran war could end “very soon.”
- The US Dollar rises as risk-off trade remains underpinned amid war in the Middle East.
USD/INR rebounds after registering little losses in the previous session. However, the pair reached an all-time high of 92.81 on Monday as the Indian Rupee (INR) faces intense selling pressure amid increased risk aversion and higher oil prices.
The Indian Rupee received support amid some easing in the Middle East conflict after US President Donald Trump said the war with Iran could be resolved “very soon,” as he faces mounting economic and political pressure after days of sharp volatility in oil markets.
The INR received support as the Reserve Bank of India stepped up measures to stabilize financial markets. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has been active in both offshore and domestic foreign-exchange markets, intervening after the currency briefly weakened beyond the 92-per-dollar level during the recent turbulence.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil price rebounds toward $88.00 per barrel at the time of writing. Trump said the war with Iran could be resolved “very soon,” as he faces mounting economic and political pressure after days of sharp volatility in oil markets.
Meanwhile, the International Energy Agency (IEA) reportedly discussed a coordinated release of emergency oil reserves among member countries on Monday to stabilize markets. Such a move could temporarily boost supply and help prevent a sharp surge in oil prices.
Still, the recent surge in oil prices remains a key concern for the Indian Rupee as currencies from nations, such as India, that rely heavily on oil imports to fulfil their energy needs remain highly sensitive to changes in oil prices.
Technical Analysis: USD/INR rebounds toward 92.50 near record highs
USD/INR trades around 92.60 at the time of writing, rebounding toward a fresh record high of 92.81 reached on Monday. The technical analysis of the daily chart indicates a persistent bullish bias as the pair remains within the ascending channel pattern.
The near-term bias is bullish as price extends above the rising 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and holds comfortably above the faster nine-day average, signalling persistent upside control after the recent breakout. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 70 shows strong momentum and pushes into overbought territory, indicating that buyers dominate but also that the risk of a pause or shallow correction increases as the pair stretches further from its medium-term average.
The immediate resistance lies at the upper boundary of the ascending channel of 92.70, followed by the all-time high of 92.50. On the downside, the initial support lies at the nine-day EMA of 92.04, followed by the lower boundary of the channel at 91.70.
