The yield on India’s 10-year G-Sec rose around 6.63%, moving higher as bond market sentiment deteriorated after the Bloomberg Index Services decided to defer the inclusion of Indian bonds in its global bond index. This prompted investors to unwind positions built on expectations of foreign inflows, delaying a potential $10-20 billion inflow into the debt market. The move came despite a smaller-than-planned state borrowing program, with states set to auction INR 268 billion this week under a record INR 8 trillion January-March issuance plan. Liquidity conditions have tightened, with the banking system’s surplus falling sharply since November, while foreign investors remained cautious after selling index-linked bonds in December. The RBI has provided support through bond purchases and is due to conduct a USD 10 billion dollar–rupee FX swap, though traders still expect higher yields amid global risk and oil price concerns.
