The yield on India’s 10-year G-Sec traded around 6.52% on Monday, holding its recent gains, as investors awaited the upcoming September inflation figures due later today. Consumer prices are expected to ease to 1.70%, below the RBI’s 2–6% target range, keeping the July–September average at 1.7–1.8%. If the latest inflation print undershoots estimates, it could further raise hopes for potential interest rate cuts, putting modest downward pressure on yields. RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra noted that lower inflation opens policy space, supporting market expectations of a December rate cut after pauses in August and October, with further easing possible in February. Meanwhile, investor caution lingered amid renewed US-China trade tensions after President Trump threatened to impose an additional 100% on Chinese goods. Domestically, a steep 50% tariff on Indian goods and tighter immigration policies under US measures also continued to weigh on sentiment.
