Gold stands firm above $4,400 as geopolitical risks boost safe-haven demand

• Gold rallies on Monday as rising geopolitical tensions boost demand for safe-haven assets.
• Bets for more interest rate cuts by the US Fed also benefit the non-yielding yellow metal.
• The ongoing USD recovery does little to hinder the XAU/USD pair’s intraday positive move.

Gold (XAU/USD) sticks to strong intraday gains above the $4,400 mark through the Asian session on Monday and seems poised to climb further amid the global flight to safety. Geopolitical tensions escalated after the US launched land strikes on Venezuela, leading to the capture of its President, Nicolás Maduro, and his wife. Furthermore, US President Donald Trump’s confrontational rhetoric toward Colombia and Mexico raised concerns about regional instability in Latin America, boosting demand for the traditional safe-haven commodity.

Apart from this, prospects for more interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) later this year turn out to be another factor driving flows toward the non-yielding Gold. Meanwhile, rising geopolitical tensions benefit the US Dollar’s (USD) status as the global reserve currency. A firmer USD, however, does little to dent the intraday bullish sentiment surrounding the commodity. This, in turn, backs the case for a further appreciating move for the bullion as traders now look forward to this week’s important US macroeconomic indicators.

Daily Digest Market Movers: Gold benefits from global flight to safety, Fed rate cut bets

• The US Army’s Delta Force – an elite special forces unit – attacked Venezuela and captured its President Nicolás Maduro, along with his wife, on Saturday. Furthermore, US President Donald Trump openly signaled that Colombia and Mexico could also face US action as part of a widening campaign against criminal networks and regional instability.
• This comes on top of the lack of progress in the Russia-Ukraine peace deal, unrest in Iran, and issues surrounding Gaza, which keeps geopolitical risks in play and benefits the safe-haven Gold at the start of a new week. Apart from this, dovish US Federal Reserve expectations turn out to be another factor underpinning the non-yielding yellow metal.
• Investors are pricing in the possibility that the US central bank will lower borrowing costs in March and could deliver another interest rate cut later this year. Moreover, expectations that the Trump-aligned new Fed chair will push for aggressive action overshadow the central bank’s hawkish guidance of just one rate reduction by the end of this year.
• This week’s release of important US macro data, including the closely-watched US Nonfarm Payrolls report on Friday, and the upcoming inflation data, will determine Fed policy trajectory. This, in turn, will play a key role in influencing the near-term US Dollar price dynamics and determining the next leg of a directional move for the commodity.
• The USD builds on its recent goodish recovery move from the lowest level since early October, touched on December 24, and rallied to a nearly four-week top. This, however, fails to hinder the XAU/USD pair’s intraday move up beyond the $4,400 mark, suggesting that the path of least resistance for the bullion remains to the upside.

Gold bulls have the upper hand while above 100-hour SMA, $4,400 mark

On the 1-hour chart, the 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) slopes downward, keeping the broader tone cautious. The XAU/USD pair stands above this average, hinting at an intraday rebound, while the 100-SMA at $4,377.80 offers initial support. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram has flipped to positive and is widening, indicating the MACD line above the signal line and improving bullish momentum. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits at 63.42, firm but not overbought.

Holding above the descending 100-SMA would keep the recovery path open, while a close back below it would expose further retracement. The MACD’s positive tone suggests buyers retain the initiative and a continued expansion would favor additional gains. The RSI remains north of 60, reinforcing upward pressure; a retreat toward 50 would flag fading momentum.