EUR/USD Price Forecast: Bears await break below 100-day SMA support near 1.1665 area

• EUR/USD remains under heavy selling as rising geopolitical tensions boost the safe-haven USD.
• The divergent Fed-ECB outlooks could support spot prices and warrant some caution for bears.
• A sustained break below the 100-day SMA pivotal support should pave the way for deeper losses.

The EUR/USD pair attracts heavy selling for the second straight day and dives to a nearly four-week trough, around the 1.1670 region, during the Asian session on Monday. Bearish traders now await a sustained break below the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) before positioning for an extension of the recent pullback from a three-month top, or levels just above the 1.1800 mark touched on December 24.

Rising geopolitical tensions assist the safe-haven US Dollar (USD) to capitalize on its recent recovery from its lowest level since early October, which, in turn, exerts pressure on the EUR/USD pair. That said, dovish US Federal Reserve (Fed) expectations might cap gains for the USD. Furthermore, the growing acceptance that the European Central Bank (ECB) is done cutting rates could support the shared currency and the currency pair.

On the daily chart, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) line slips below the Signal line and sits under the zero mark. The negative histogram widens, suggesting building bearish momentum. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) prints 44, below the 50 midline, indicating fading upside impetus. Initial support aligns at the 100-day SMA at 1.1666; holding above it would help contain downside pressures for the EUR/USD pair.

Meanwhile, the gently rising 100-day SMA continues to underpin the broader bias, though a daily close beneath it would tilt the tone back in favor of sellers. Until that gives way, dips could remain contained above the average. MACD’s placement below zero and beneath its Signal line reinforces a corrective phase. A hold over the 100-day SMA could stabilize the EUR/USD pair, though an RSI recovery above 50 is needed to reassert bullish momentum.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool)

EUR/USD daily chart