The euro is performing very poorly today, pressured by a strengthening US dollar and the prospect of a surge in energy prices that could “bury the chances” of a recovery in European industry. The EURUSD pair is down more than 0.3% and has slipped below a key support level at the 200-session exponential moving average (EMA200), an area from which the pair rebounded three times in 2025. Further increases in oil and gas prices could exert significant additional pressure, while a de-escalation or end to the conflict with Iran could provide support.
Unfortunately, there are currently no signs that the war momentum in the Middle East will reverse anytime soon. Netanyahu stated that Israel does not seek a prolonged war, but yesterday Trump did not rule out deploying ground troops and this morning said the United States is prepared for a long, victorious war. At present, rising gas prices in particular may pose a serious challenge for Europe and, consequently, for the euro. The chart shows RSI approaching oversold territory, while selling volume clearly dominates.
EURUSD (D1)
Source: xStation5
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