While today’s economic calendar is more substantive than yesterday’s, global markets remain tethered to developments in the Middle East. Despite Donald Trump’s five-day ultimatum for a diplomatic accord, overnight strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure have reignited the rally in crude markets.
Earlier, the Asian session delivered a raft of softer-than-expected data from Japan. The preliminary Manufacturing PMI for March retreated to 51.4, disappointing consensus estimates of a rebound to 53.2. Furthermore, national CPI inflation unexpectedly cooled to 1.3% year-on-year, down from February’s 1.5%. Nevertheless, analysts suggest the Bank of Japan remains on track for an April rate hike, given the significant pass-through effects of the current energy shock on domestic prices.
Economic Calendar (Consensus via Reuters):
- 08:15 – France: Flash Manufacturing PMI (Forecast: 49.4; Previous: 50.1)
- 08:15 – France: Flash Services PMI (Forecast: 49.2; Previous: 49.6)
- 08:30 – Germany: Flash Manufacturing PMI (Forecast: 49.6; Previous: 50.9)
- 08:30 – Germany: Flash Services PMI (Forecast: 52.5; Previous: 53.5)
- 09:00 – Eurozone: Flash Manufacturing PMI (Forecast: 49.4; Previous: 50.8)
- 09:00 – Eurozone: Flash Services PMI (Forecast: 51.1; Previous: 51.9)
- 09:30 – UK: Flash Manufacturing PMI (Forecast: 50.0; Previous: 51.7)
- 09:30 – UK: Flash Services PMI (Forecast: 52.8; Previous: 53.9)
- 12:30 – USA: Unit Labor Costs Q4 (Forecast: 2.8% QoQ; Previous: -1.9% QoQ)
- 12:30 – USA: Non-farm Productivity Q4 (Forecast: 2.8% QoQ; Previous: 4.9% QoQ)
- 13:45 – USA: Flash Manufacturing PMI (Forecast: 51.5; Previous: 51.6)
- 13:45 – USA: Flash Services PMI (Forecast: 52.0; Previous: 51.7)
- 20:30 – USA: API Crude Oil Stockpile Report (Previous: 6.6m bbl)
How market may react?
- Flash PMIs (Eurozone, Germany, UK): These provide the first look at economic health for the current month. With the EURUSD currently trading at 1.16, any significant miss in German or Eurozone manufacturing (especially if it drops further below the 50.0 contraction threshold) could trigger a sharp sell-off in the Euro as markets reassess the ECB’s path.
- US Unit Labor Costs & Productivity: In the current “higher-for-longer” interest rate environment, the Fed is hyper-focused on inflationary pressures. A higher-than-expected Unit Labor Cost (forecasted at 2.8%) would suggest that wage-push inflation is still a threat, likely strengthening the USD further against the Majors.
- API Crude Oil Stockpile Report: Given the overnight strikes in Iran and the precarious situation in the Persian Gulf, the weekly inventory data will be scrutinized. A “draw” (decrease in stocks) would provide additional fundamental support for the current rally in oil prices.
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