The focal point of today’s macroeconomic calendar will be the minutes from the latest FOMC meeting. Despite the dovish tone of the Fed Chair’s press conference and the lack of major concerns regarding inflation or the impact of a potential US government shutdown, the market remains fairly conservative about the Fed’s expected stance in Q1 2026 (the swaps market currently prices only a 58% probability of another rate cut before the end of March). Divisions within the Fed are likely to be taken into account.
After yesterday’s lull, market attention may also be drawn to a series of data releases from Spain (CPI and retail sales), US house price indices linked to Fed policy expectations, and the Chicago manufacturing PMI. Key for tomorrow’s opening will be China’s PMI readings.
Today’s economic calendar:
08:00 GMT, Spain – Inflation data for December:
- Spanish CPI: current 2.9%; forecast 2.8% YoY; previous 3.0% YoY;
- Spanish HICP: current 3.0%; forecast 3.0% YoY; previous 3.2% YoY;
08:00 GMT, Spain – Retail sales for November:
- Spanish retail sales: current 6%; previous 3.8% YoY;
14:00 GMT, United States – House Price Index for October:
- Year-on-year: previous 1.7% YoY;
- Month-on-month: forecast 0.1% MoM; previous 0.0% MoM;
14:00 GMT, United States – S&P/CS Composite-20 House Price Index (n.s.a.) for October:
- forecast 1.1% YoY; previous 1.4% YoY;
14:45 GMT, United States – PMI data for December:
- Chicago PMI: forecast 39.8; previous 36.3;
19:00 GMT, United States – FOMC Meeting Minutes
21:30 GMT, United States – EIA data:
- Weekly crude oil inventory change (API): previous 2.400M;
01:30 GMT, China – PMI data for December:
- Chinese Composite PMI: previous 49.7;
- Manufacturing PMI: forecast 49.4; previous 49.2;
- Non-manufacturing PMI: forecast 49.8; previous 49.5;
01:45 GMT, China – PMI data for December:
- Caixin Manufacturing PMI: forecast 49.7 MoM; previous 49.9 MoM;
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