US natural gas futures surged past $5.3 per MMBtu, approaching levels last seen in December 2022, as extreme cold forecasts boosted demand expectations and raised supply risks. Temperatures are projected to remain mostly below normal through February 5, with the coldest period expected around January 24 to 27. Average US temperatures are forecast near 21.8 degrees Fahrenheit on January 24 and to stay in the low 20s through January 26, driving heating demand toward near record levels. A severe winter storm is expected to affect roughly two-thirds of the country, increasing residential and commercial consumption and raising the risk of inventory drawdowns. At the same time, output is around a three-month low, with part of this week’s production decline linked to freeze-offs, particularly in southern regions. US natural gas futures are on track for a weekly gain of more than 70%, the largest increase in records dating back to 1990.
