Despite the war in the Middle East and clearly weaker sentiment across equity markets—driven by rising oil prices and renewed inflation concerns – Bitcoin has reacted relatively calmly. Following the Israeli and U.S. strikes on targets in Iran, BTC briefly dropped to around $63,000 on Saturday morning, but has since rebounded by roughly 5% and is now stabilizing near $66,500. On-chain data initially confirmed selling pressure in BTC derivatives, with liquidations peaking at approximately $1.8 billion in positions, yet the market quickly regained balance.
Source: CryptoQuant
Somewhat surprisingly, short-term holders did not engage in массов selling, which may suggest a phase of “supply exhaustion” at this stage of the cycle and indicates that Bitcoin is currently held by relatively stronger hands.
Source: CryptoQuant
On the other hand, a significant portion of BTC supply accumulated over the past two years remains at a loss. A move below the psychologically important $60,000 level could sharply increase unrealized losses among long-term holders.
Source: CryptoQuant
ETFs are not panicking (as for now)
At this stage of the market cycle, investor focus remains firmly on Bitcoin, while Ethereum has clearly taken a back seat. This is visible in ETF flows: capital continues to favor Bitcoin, and without a sustained rebound in BTC, a broader crypto bull market including ETH – appears unlikely for now. With the exception of last Monday and Friday, Bitcoin ETFs recorded clearly positive net inflows last week. Ethereum ETFs, by contrast, saw only marginally positive flows.
Source: XTB Research, Bloomberg Finance L.P.
Cumulative capital in crypto ETFs remains substantial. From peak levels, assets have declined by roughly 15%, despite Bitcoin falling nearly 50% from its all-time highs. This suggests that although ETF-related selling has accelerated in recent months, it is still far from extreme.
Source: XTB Research, Bloomberg Finance L.P.
Bitcoin and Ethereum charts (D1)
From a technical perspective, Bitcoin appears set to remain in consolidation between $60,000 and $72,000 in the near term. The market is likely searching for a catalyst to trigger a more decisive move in either direction. Another downward impulse toward $50,000 cannot be ruled out- especially if global equity conditions deteriorate further, favoring the U.S. dollar, bond yields, and oil. Conversely, a decisive breakout above the $74,000–$75,000 area would increase the probability of a more durable recovery attempt.
Source: xStation5
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