Crude Inventories Surge Against Expectations, Oil Maintains Strong Gains
- Crude Oil Inventory Change: +3.39m bbl (Expected: -2.2m bbl; Previous: -3.8m bbl)
- Gasoline Inventories: +8.997m bbl (Expected: +4.1m bbl; Previous: +7.7m bbl)
- Distillate Inventories: -0.029m bbl (Expected: -0.2m bbl; Previous: +5.59m bbl)
We are observing a rather interesting situation regarding inventories. Gasoline stocks have recorded another very strong build, which is most likely linked to high refinery throughput. However, this may also signal limited demand, even as distillates—often used for heating purposes—show a marginal decline.
It is worth noting that crude oil is gaining due to uncertainty surrounding Iran. Although Iran itself is not a dominant global player, its actions could theoretically disrupt oil transit in this key region for a shorter or longer period. Furthermore, the market historically reacts poorly to flashpoints in the Persian Gulf, making the price increase a standard response.
Historically, such price spikes tend to persist for up to two weeks before retreating, provided there is no further escalation. At this stage, it is difficult to assess whether we have already witnessed the peak of this escalation or if it still lies ahead (e.g., a potential U.S. intervention in Iran).
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