Coffee futures are posting gains of nearly 5% today, piercing the 400 cents per pound level for the first time since September 17th. Strong upward momentum was already evident during yesterday’s session, driven by persistent concerns over insufficient rainfall in Brazil. Low precipitation during the critical tree blossoming period threatens to significantly reduce production prospects for the upcoming season.
Adding to the bullish outlook is the decline in ICE-certified coffee inventories, which have reached their lowest levels in 1.5 years. Compounding the supply tightness, the United States continues to avoid sourcing Brazilian coffee due to the persistence of a 50% import tariff.
Further intensifying supply fears, the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) last month increased the probability of a severe La Niña event to 71%. This phenomenon could lead to widespread drought across Brazil in the coming months, potentially restricting next season’s harvest even further.
The price of Arabica has rallied approximately 5% today, successfully breaking resistance at the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the latest major upward wave. A strong supply zone is now identified in the 420–430 cents per pound range. The historical highs recorded in February sit slightly above the 430 cents level.
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