Cocoa futures (COCOA) on ICE slumped today, down more than 5% and falling below $3,000 per tonne – levels not seen since May 2023. The market is being hit by chronically weak physical demand, a sharp slowdown in processing, favourable weather across West Africa and the prospect of a strong harvest season, which is also weighing on returns for African farmers.
CFTC Commitments of Traders (CoT) analysis (data as of February 17, 2026)
The latest CoT report for cocoa suggests the market is in a transition phase rather than at a point of clear trend acceleration. The key weekly change is a drop in open interest of more than 8,000 contracts (around -5%). This indicates that some participants have closed positions, leaving less “fresh fuel” for a sustained, directional move. A decline in open interest often coincides with a cooling impulse and a shift toward consolidation.
- In terms of positioning, the largest speculative players (Managed Money) remain net short—holding more short than long positions—giving the market a mildly bearish bias. At the same time, producers and other commercial participants reduced their hedges (cut short positions), which historically can signal that supply-side pressure is easing. In other words, speculators are still leaning bearish, but the “industry” is no longer adding to that downside pressure.
- It is also worth noting the concentration of short positions within one trader category. A meaningful share of shorts is held by a relatively small number of entities, which increases the risk of a short squeeze: if a bullish catalyst emerges (for example, a weather or supply-related headline), forced short covering could trigger a sharper rebound.
Overall, the report does not point to an extreme overbought or oversold setup. Positioning shows a moderate bearish tilt among funds, but with participation declining and hedgers partially stepping back. In the near term, this raises the odds of consolidation or a technical rebound; a return to a clear downtrend would likely require renewed short build-up by funds alongside rising open interest.
Source: CFTC, CoT
COCOA (D1)
Source: xStation5
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