Cocoa prices fell further in January, nearing $5,200 per tonne, the lowest level since late November, driven by favorable weather conditions that are expected to boost supply. The decline follows cocoa’s sharpest annual drop on record in 2025, when prices plunged 48.1%. Earlier drought concerns in West Africa had lifted prices, but improved harvest prospects later in the year weighed heavily on the market, with cocoa closing 2025 at $6,056 per tonne. Meanwhile, favorable weather across key West African producing regions, particularly Ivory Coast and Ghana, is expected to increase harvests in February and March, raising farmers’ expectations for crop quality. Despite the projected rise in output, demand is likely to remain subdued. Ivorian farmers have noted that unusual rainfall could significantly boost production, while European processing data is expected to show weak consumption.
