China’s 10-year government bond yield rose toward 1.83%, approaching its highest level in seven weeks, as investors increasingly moved away from bonds amid signs that the People’s Bank of China is hesitant to introduce further monetary stimulus, while Beijing continues to prioritize fiscal support measures. This combination is weighing on the bond market, as limited monetary easing dampens expectations of lower yields, while fiscal stimulus implies higher government bond issuance, making bonds less attractive. Investor concerns have also grown as China’s stock and bond markets diverge, breaking the traditional inverse relationship in which falling equities boost bond prices. Notably, the recent slump in Chinese equities, triggered by a selloff in US artificial intelligence stocks, was unable to lure investors back into bonds. Meanwhile, investors are focusing on this weekend’s China PMI release for insights into the country’s economic health.
