Banks
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ECB: Oil-driven inflation risks lift hike odds – Deutsche Bank
Deutsche Bank highlights that markets now assign a clear probability to an ECB rate hike by December 2026 as Oil…
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Oil: Safe-haven bid versus consumer tax – BNY
BNY’s Bob Savage highlights that Oil supply shock risks look underpriced even as prediction markets see high odds of crude…
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USD: Softer payrolls expected – Deutsche Bank
Deutsche Bank economists project a slowdown in February Nonfarm Payrolls to 30k from January’s 130k, with the Unemployment Rate steady at 4.3%.…
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EUR/USD: Support from ECB repricing – ING
ING’s Chris Turner highlights that higher energy prices are negative for EUR/USD, but recent European Central Bank repricing has narrowed…
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USD: Limited impact from jobs data – Commerzbank
Commerzbank’s Volkmar Baur argues that the upcoming US labour market report is unlikely to shift expectations for Federal Reserve policy or materially…
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China: Pragmatic growth stance and FX stability – TD Securities
TD Securities’ Senior Macro Strategist Alex Loo says Chinese policymakers have set a modest 2026 GDP growth target of 4.5–5.0%, with TD…
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Eurozone: Gas shock challenges ECB path – BNY
BNY strategist Geoff Yu argues that the sharp repricing of European natural gas futures has significantly overshot assumptions embedded in…
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Oil: Supply risk focus and strategic reserves – Danske Bank
Danske Research Team notes that recent Middle East tensions have kept Oil in focus. The bank highlights that markets still…
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European gas: Upside risks build on Russian supply threat – ING
ING’s Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey warn that European gas faces growing upside risks after President Putin signalled Russia could…
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CHF: Oil spike meets SNB resistance – Commerzbank
Michael Pfister at Commerzbank notes that higher Oil prices and a stronger Swiss Franc are offsetting each other on inflation,…
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