Arabica coffee futures traded around $3.60 per pound, attempting to recover from last week’s sharp slump. Prices have been volatile amid mixed signals, including concerns over Brazilian crop conditions and geopolitical developments that briefly lifted risk sentiment following the US capture of Nicolás Maduro, which stirred geopolitical tensions among major producers. Analysts caution that any revival of Venezuela’s historic coffee industry will take considerable time, given that production today remains a fraction of its 19th-century output, far below past levels. Meanwhile, in Brazil, the world’s largest coffee producer, rain is expected to return, a positive sign for crop development at a critical growth phase. Trade sources offer a generally positive outlook for the 2026/27 Brazil harvest, with forecasts from Safras & Mercado and StoneX projecting a strong crop of around 71 million bags, buoyed by favorable weather patterns despite recent dry spells.
